Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
